Two sets of numbers landed before the holidays, and they point in opposite directions. Banner ads that find new customers got a lot cheaper this year, while Meta's ads got noticeably more expensive. Neither means "spend more"; both mean "spend on purpose."
What the numbers say
AdRoll's Q3 2026 report covers more than 20,000 online businesses that advertise through it, from July 1 to September 8. It compares what display ads cost per thousand impressions against the same stretch last year.
Show the numbers
| Measure | Change |
|---|---|
| Finding new shoppers | −45% |
| Retargeting past visitors | −29.1% |
| Targeting named companies (B2B) | +4.4% |
Source: AdRoll State of Digital Advertising, Q3 2026, via PPC Land
Meta went the other way. Ecommerce agency Pennock compared its beauty and skincare clients from July and August 2025 with the same months this year: Meta's cost per thousand impressions rose from $13.28 to $17.94, up 35%. Meta itself reported its average price per ad up 12% year over year in its second quarter.
The more useful number is what happens in the busiest week. Pennock looked at its brands during last year's peak week, from November 24 to December 1, compared with October.
Show the numbers
| Measure | Change |
|---|---|
| Cost per click | +87.7% |
| Cost per 1,000 impressions | +76% |
| Cost per purchase | −23.8% |
| Cost per new customer | −20.5% |
Source: Pennock client data via PPC Land; sample size not disclosed
Clicks nearly doubled in price, yet each sale cost about a quarter less. People shopping in late November are ready to buy, so more of the expensive clicks turn into orders. Worth knowing: discounts made up 57.5% of those brands' sales that week, up from 25.6% in October. Some of that "cheaper sale" was paid for with margin.
What it means for you
- If you sell things people give as gifts, peak week is still worth showing up for, but budget for clicks costing up to twice as much and judge it on cost per sale, not cost per click.
- If you sell a service (plumbing, dental, legal), the holiday crowd mostly isn't shopping for you. You'd pay peak-week prices for attention you can't use. That's a good week to spend less on Meta, not more.
- If you've never tried display ads to reach new people, this is an unusually cheap year to test it. Cheap impressions aren't the same as cheap customers, so keep the test small and measure leads, not views.
Two caveats. AdRoll's numbers come from its own customers, who lean towards online stores, and Pennock's from a group of beauty brands of undisclosed size. Treat both as direction, not a forecast for your account.
What to do
- Pick your holiday stance now. Black Friday is November 27 and Cyber Monday is November 30. Decide whether those days are for you before the auction gets crowded.
- Service businesses: set a lower Meta budget for November 23 to December 1, then put it back.
- Retail businesses: raise budgets a week before Black Friday, not on the day. Learning periods eat the first few days.
- Judge holiday ads on cost per sale or lead, never on cost per click. In peak week, those two move in opposite directions.
- Check your conversion tracking first. Without it you can't tell whether pricier clicks paid off.
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